Italy’s iconic pasta industry is on the brink of a major upheaval. In a matter of weeks, 13 leading Italian pasta brands could disappear from U.S. grocery stores as new tariffs threaten to double prices and disrupt a $700 million transatlantic trade. The looming crisis, triggered by a sharp escalation in U.S. trade policy, has sent shockwaves through both the Italian food sector and American retail, raising urgent questions about the future of a cherished culinary staple.
Tariffs Ignite a Transatlantic Showdown
On September 4, 2025, the U.S. Commerce Department imposed a preliminary antidumping duty of 91.74% on 13 Italian pasta exporters. When combined with an existing 15% European Union tariff, the total duty on these imports now stands at a staggering 107%—the highest ever levied on Italian food products entering the U.S. The affected brands account for more than $700 million in annual sales to the American market, making this not just a trade dispute but a direct threat to the global pasta supply chain.
The investigation that led to these tariffs began in August 2024, following complaints from two smaller U.S. pasta producers, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions and Winland Foods. They alleged that Italian pasta was being sold in the U.S. at unfairly low prices, prompting the Commerce Department’s probe. The timing of the tariffs—coinciding with the sale of 8th Avenue by its parent company, Post Holdings—has fueled speculation about the motivations behind the challenge. Regardless, the result is clear: Italian pasta makers, from artisanal producers to household names, now face an existential threat in their most lucrative export market.
Diplomatic and Industry Pushback
The Italian government has responded with urgency. On October 5, 2025, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani convened a Tariff Task Force, bringing together government officials, industry leaders, and legal experts to coordinate a response. Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida denounced the tariffs as “hyper-protectionist,” arguing they lack both necessity and justification. The European Union has also weighed in, with Trade Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič calling the measures “clearly not acceptable” and signaling that the EU may pursue action through the World Trade Organization.
This diplomatic offensive underscores the high stakes for Italy’s pasta industry, which supports thousands of jobs and is deeply woven into the country’s cultural identity. As the January 2026 deadline for a final U.S. ruling approaches, Italian exporters are submitting evidence and lobbying for relief, while American retailers brace for potential shortages.
Thirteen Brands in the Crosshairs
The 13 Italian pasta brands facing the 107% tariff represent a cross-section of the industry, from historic artisans to major commercial exporters. Among them is La Molisana, a $400 million company that rebuilt itself after bankruptcy and now counts the U.S. as a vital market. CEO Giuseppe Ferro has stated that absorbing such a steep tariff is impossible, forcing the company to consider shifting focus to European distribution.
Rummo, another premium brand with a strong U.S. presence, warns that tariffs could push retail prices from $3.99 to $7.99 per package, effectively doubling costs for American consumers. Pasta Garofalo, which earns about $50 million annually from U.S. sales, faces the maximum penalty after alleged non-compliance in the Commerce Department’s investigation and has joined diplomatic efforts to overturn the tariffs.
Barilla, Italy’s largest pasta producer, is less exposed since most of its U.S. sales come from American-made pasta, but its imported specialty lines are still at risk. Other affected companies include Agritalia, Aldino, Antiche Tradizioni Di Gragnano, Gruppo Milo, Pastificio Artigiano Cav. Giuseppe Cocco, Pastificio Chiavenna, Pastificio Liguori, Pastificio Sgambaro, and Pastificio Tamma. Each faces unique challenges, but all are united in their efforts to contest the tariffs and maintain access to the U.S. market.
Ripple Effects for U.S. Consumers and Retailers
If these 13 brands withdraw, U.S. grocery shelves could lose up to 40% of their premium Italian pasta offerings. Retailers are already preparing for supply gaps, and consumers may soon face sticker shock as prices double. The impact extends beyond specialty stores to mainstream supermarkets and foodservice providers, highlighting how trade policy can quickly reshape everyday shopping and dining experiences.
The broader economic implications are significant. Italy’s $700 million annual pasta trade with the U.S. supports thousands of jobs in pasta-producing regions. European officials warn that the precedent set by these tariffs could spill over to other iconic food products, such as olive oil and cheese, potentially escalating into a wider trade conflict.
Countdown to a Critical Decision
With less than two months until the final U.S. ruling in January 2026, Italian exporters are racing to present their case, while governments on both sides of the Atlantic intensify negotiations. American retailers are developing contingency plans, and consumers may soon have to adjust to a new reality at the dinner table.
If the tariffs are upheld, Italian pasta could vanish from American shelves within weeks, marking a dramatic shift in the global food landscape. The outcome will not only determine the fate of 13 storied brands but could also redefine the rules of international trade for years to come.
